Direct Lunar Ascent Returns:

SpaceX Starship to the Moon in 2026 Without Refueling... Flight 12 Plans Changed! - YouTube

SpaceX Starship Revives Apollo-Era Architecture as NASA Reopens Competition

Complex orbital refueling architecture required for lunar missions could enable single-stage capability, though schedule delays prompt agency to seek alternatives

By Staff Writer
October 28, 2025

NASA's Artemis program has thrust the decades-old concept of direct lunar ascent back into the spotlight, though with a modern twist that reflects both the promise and challenges of SpaceX's revolutionary Starship architecture. While the company's massive launch vehicle theoretically possesses the capability for direct Earth-to-Moon missions, practical implementation requires an unprecedented orbital refueling infrastructure that has yet to be demonstrated—a reality that led Acting NASA Administrator Sean Duffy to reopen the Artemis III lunar lander contract on October 20.

Revival of a Discarded Concept

Direct lunar ascent, the conceptually simplest approach to reaching the Moon's surface, was famously rejected during the Apollo program in favor of lunar orbit rendezvous. The approach would have required NASA to develop the massive Nova rocket, significantly larger than the Saturn V that ultimately flew. Wernher von Braun's team envisioned the Nova-class vehicle standing taller than Saturn V, capable of carrying 60 tons of cargo and 20 astronauts in a single, unbroken mission—no docking, no refueling, just raw power from Earth to lunar surface and back.

The concept was abandoned as too ambitious. Nova's proposed first stage would have generated approximately 6,960 tons of thrust using eight F-1 engines, but the engines lacked sufficient efficiency, materials were too heavy, and guidance computers couldn't handle the precision required for direct lunar descent.

In a historical echo, SpaceX's Starship—the most powerful rocket ever built at 16 million pounds of thrust—now represents the first vehicle since the 1960s with theoretical direct ascent capability. Super Heavy already surpasses Nova's performance, delivering 8,200 tons of thrust with 33 Raptor engines, while Starship's second stage provides more thrust than Nova's entire upper assembly.

However, the current Artemis architecture diverges significantly from pure direct ascent. The baseline mission profile requires Starship's Human Landing System variant to launch separately from the crew, undergo refueling in Earth orbit through approximately 10-15 tanker flights, then boost itself to lunar orbit for rendezvous with NASA's Orion spacecraft carrying astronauts aboard the Space Launch System rocket.

Yet industry sources and recent developments suggest SpaceX may be exploring an alternative path—one that resurrects the direct ascent concept through modern engineering.

Orbital Refueling: The Critical Enabler

The lynchpin of Starship's lunar capability remains in-space cryogenic propellant transfer, a technology never before demonstrated at operational scale. SpaceX successfully completed limited propellant transfer tests between internal tanks during Integrated Flight Test 3 in March 2024, but full ship-to-ship refueling demonstrations initially planned for spring 2025 have been delayed.

NASA's Lisa Watson-Morgan, HLS Program Manager at Marshall Space Flight Center, stated that the agency expects to see "15 to 17 flights of Starship en route to the crewed Artemis III crewed landing mission." Jessica Jensen, SpaceX Vice President of Customer Operations, estimated in 2024 that refueling operations would require "roughly 10-ish" tanker launches, though calculations accounting for Starship Version 2 performance suggest the number could range from 15 to as many as 40 flights, according to industry analyses.

The current Starship iteration can store approximately 1,200 metric tons of liquid methane and liquid oxygen, with the lunar lander variant expected to carry about 1,500 tons. If each tanker delivers 100 tons of propellant to orbit as advertised, the mathematics suggest 15 launches minimum—a figure that could double if actual performance proves closer to 50 tons per tanker.

Recent observations at Starbase have revealed Ship 39, identified as Starship 53, featuring two specialized ports built into its hull—confirmed by company officials as fueling interfaces designed for in-orbit cryogenic transfer. Musk characterized the ship-to-ship docking as "much easier than docking with the space station," suggesting confidence in the technical approach despite the unprecedented nature of the operation.

The Direct Ascent Alternative

However, transferring cryogenic propellants in microgravity remains one of aerospace engineering's most formidable challenges. Industry sources suggest SpaceX engineers have been studying an alternative approach that would eliminate orbital refueling entirely—resurrecting direct ascent through modern materials and propulsion technology.

The key insight centers on Starship's reusability penalty. The vehicle carries substantial mass overhead in heat shields, landing systems, and recovery propellant. By temporarily abandoning reusability for lunar missions and operating Starship as an expendable vehicle, engineers estimate a payload increase of 20-25%—potentially sufficient to enable direct lunar transit without orbital refueling.

More significantly, leaked industry reports and satellite observations suggest SpaceX has studied an optional third stage inspired by United Launch Alliance's Centaur system. Unlike methane-oxygen propulsion, liquid hydrogen-oxygen delivers specific impulse of 450-465 seconds compared to Raptor's 380 seconds—meaning dramatically more thrust per kilogram of fuel. A hydrogen-based upper stage atop Starship's methane-powered lower stages could theoretically achieve trans-lunar injection velocity directly from Earth.

The engineering challenges are substantial. Hydrogen storage at -253°C versus methane's -162°C demands new insulation systems, active cooling, and double-walled cryogenic tanks. Managing both propellants without massive boil-off losses, while integrating hydrogen's typically thin-walled fragile tankage with Starship's robust stainless steel structure, would require entirely new thermal management approaches.

Recent photographs from Starbase show a new interstage adapter, notably longer and wider than previous versions, leading to speculation this could house an auxiliary stage for high-energy missions. Flight 12, officially designated as a "high energy demonstration," has prompted industry observers to suggest it may test trans-lunar trajectory capabilities or deep space communication protocols rather than standard orbital operations.

Technical Evolution and Schedule Reality

SpaceX has completed 11 Starship test flights as of October 2025, with the program experiencing significant turbulence. After three consecutive catastrophic failures in early 2025, the program rebounded with successful Flights 10 and 11 in August and October, respectively. However, all flights to date remain suborbital; Starship has yet to demonstrate orbital operations, long-duration cryogenic propellant storage, or the depot architecture required for lunar missions.

The lunar variant incorporates substantial modifications from the baseline Starship: deployable rather than fixed solar arrays that unfurl like wings during lunar operations, 18 landing thrusters distributed among six pods to avoid regolith plume impingement, specialized micrometeoroid and orbital debris protection tiles, stretched propellant tanks for extended capacity, and modular elevator systems for crew surface access. Full-scale docking system qualification testing with Orion was completed in February 2024 at Johnson Space Center, validating over 200 docking scenarios.

A significant design element revealed in recent Starbase observations involves thermal management. Unlike standard stainless steel Starships, the HLS variant will feature bright white reflective coating—not for aesthetics, but thermal protection. Lunar surface temperatures exceed 120°C in direct sunlight; the white coating prevents system overheating and enables the vehicle to survive extended periods in lunar orbit or on the surface, potentially for months.

Recent photographs from Starbase captured a large nose cone section covered in a grid of square openings reinforced with metal bars, interpreted by observers as either window placements for the HLS crew cabin or structural test articles. The timing of this hardware's appearance—days after Acting Administrator Duffy's public criticism of SpaceX's schedule—was noted by industry analysts as potentially strategic, demonstrating tangible progress on lunar hardware.

Recent progress includes elevator testing by NASA astronauts Nicole Mann and Doug Wheelock in full-scale mockups, along with previous tests by Peggy Whitson and Doug Wheelock wearing Axiom spacesuits. NASA reported in February 2024 that SpaceX had accomplished over 30 HLS-specific milestones covering power generation, communications, guidance and navigation, propulsion, life support, and space environments protection. The life support system underwent full testing in February 2024.

Competition Reopens Amid Delays

The October 20 announcement by Acting Administrator Duffy marks a dramatic pivot for the program. Originally awarded a $2.89 billion contract in April 2021—despite receiving the worst technical and management ratings among competitors—SpaceX now faces renewed competition as NASA targets a 2028 lunar landing date, pushed back from the previous 2027 goal.

"SpaceX had the contract for Artemis III... I love SpaceX. It's an amazing company. The problem is, they're behind," Duffy stated in a CNBC interview. "We're in a race against China. The president and I want to get to the Moon in this president's term. So I'm going to open up the contract."

Blue Origin, already selected for Artemis V with its Blue Moon Mark 2 lander, emerges as the primary alternative. The company has completed assembly of its first Mark 1 unit (MK1-SN001) and scheduled vacuum chamber testing at Johnson Space Center. Lockheed Martin has indicated it has been developing its own lunar landing solution in anticipation of renewed competition.

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk responded sharply via social media: "Blue Origin has never delivered a payload to orbit, let alone the Moon. They won't [get there faster]. SpaceX is moving like lightning compared to the rest of the space industry."

Architecture Implications

The reopening of the Artemis III contract raises fundamental questions about lunar mission architecture. Blue Origin's approach calls for refueling closer to the Moon rather than in Earth orbit, potentially reducing the number of launches required. The original Dynetics ALPACA lander, passed over in 2021, offered a simpler, cheaper architecture requiring fewer refueling operations, though with reduced cargo capacity.

If SpaceX successfully demonstrates direct ascent capability—either through expendable operations or a hydrogen third stage—the implications extend beyond Artemis III. A single-launch lunar mission would eliminate the complexity of 10-15 tanker flights, dramatically reduce operational costs (potentially by 70% according to some estimates), and compress mission timelines by eliminating refueling bottlenecks.

Such a capability would fundamentally challenge NASA's current architecture, which relies heavily on the Space Launch System for crew transport. A direct ascent Starship could theoretically perform both crew transport and lunar landing in a single vehicle, though human-rating considerations and abort modes would require extensive analysis.

The strategic implications are equally significant. Demonstrating single-launch lunar capability would establish clear U.S. dominance in heavy-lift capabilities as China develops its Long March 10 for lunar missions. It would also create a platform potentially adaptable to Mars cargo missions, asteroid retrieval operations, or deep space observatory launches—essentially any mission currently constrained by orbital assembly requirements.

Former NASA Administrator Mike Griffin has noted that mission probability of success correlates directly with the number of launches in each refueling campaign. Assuming a 98% success rate per launch and propellant transfer operation, a 15-flight campaign yields approximately 74% overall probability—figures that decline sharply if 30 or more launches prove necessary. A single-launch direct ascent mission would carry inherently higher reliability by eliminating multiple failure modes.

The Government Accountability Office, in November 2023 testimony, concluded that Artemis III's crewed lunar landing was unlikely before early 2027, identifying Raptor engine development and cryogenic propellant storage as top program risks. By September 2023, the HLS program had delayed 8 of 13 key events by at least six months. A pivot to direct ascent would eliminate several of these risk areas while introducing new ones related to hydrogen integration and expendable operations economics.

Technical Precedent and Path Forward

While Starship represents the first vehicle since the 1960s theoretically capable of direct lunar ascent, the practical architecture more closely resembles Earth Orbit Rendezvous—the alternative approach NASA studied during Apollo that involved assembling spacecraft components in orbit before departing for the Moon. The difference lies in scale and reusability: SpaceX's architecture calls for rapid-fire tanker launches at near-weekly cadence from multiple launch sites, with stretch goals of biweekly operations from a single pad.

NASA's Space Technology Mission Directorate has funded over 20 development activities addressing cryogenic fluid management challenges through its Tipping Point program. The March 2024 propellant transfer test during IFT-3 provided crucial data on super-cooled propellant behavior during engine shutdown and fluid movement effects on spacecraft stability.

The uncrewed Starship HLS demonstration mission to the lunar surface, originally planned for 2025, has also been delayed. This mission must prove the vehicle can land on and lift off from the lunar surface, though NASA does not require demonstration of the full return to lunar orbit for the test.

Geopolitical Stakes

China's Chang'e lunar exploration program, targeting crewed landings by 2030, has elevated the Artemis timeline from technical achievement to strategic imperative. NASA's decision to land at the Moon's South Pole—rather than the equatorial sites favored during Apollo—reflects both scientific interest in ice deposits and geopolitical positioning. The first nation to establish presence in this region may gain significant leverage in shaping international lunar policy and resource utilization frameworks.

The Artemis program's next immediate milestone is Artemis II, currently scheduled for February 2026 after being accelerated from an April target. That mission will fly four astronauts around the Moon without landing, testing the complete SLS-Orion system in cislunar space for the first time with crew aboard.

Industry Impact

The reopening of competition carries broader implications for NASA's commercial partnerships model. The agency received substantial criticism in 2021 for selecting only one lander due to insufficient congressional appropriations, departing from its preference for redundancy demonstrated in the Commercial Crew Program. The current move partially addresses those concerns while exposing tensions between accelerated schedules and technical readiness.

SpaceX's approach—minimizing NASA requirements to just 27 system specifications compared to traditional cost-plus programs—represents a fundamental shift in how the agency procures human spaceflight systems. Deputy HLS Program Manager Kent Chojnacki characterized the approach as "completely different" from legacy programs like SLS.

Whether this streamlined acquisition strategy proves compatible with the agency's human-rating safety standards and schedule demands remains the central question facing Artemis III. As Starship prepares to transition to its Block 3 configuration with upgraded Raptor engines and enhanced capabilities, NASA faces a decision between proven but slower traditional aerospace approaches and SpaceX's rapid-iteration commercial model.

The agency has requested that SpaceX and Blue Origin present "acceleration approaches" by October 29, with broader industry participation expected in subsequent procurement rounds. The outcome will likely determine not just who returns Americans to the Moon, but how future deep space transportation architectures evolve.

Whether Flight 12 represents the first step toward proving direct ascent feasibility—or merely another incremental test in Starship's development—remains to be seen. But the convergence of 1960s direct ascent concepts with 2020s reusable rocket technology, powered by modern materials and propulsion systems that von Braun's team could only imagine, suggests that dismissed historical approaches may deserve reconsideration. If Starship demonstrates the ability to reach lunar distances without orbital infrastructure, it would represent not just an engineering achievement, but validation that the boldest space architecture concepts can be realized through persistent iteration rather than singular massive programs.

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Sources and Citations

1. NASA Official Releases

   NASA. (2025, March 19). "NASA Artemis Mission Progresses with SpaceX Starship Test Flight." NASA.gov. https://www.nasa.gov/directorates/esdmd/artemis-campaign-development-division/human-landing-system-program/nasa-artemis-mission-progresses-with-spacex-starship-test-flight/

   NASA. (2025, March 19). "NASA, SpaceX Test Starship Lunar Lander Docking System." NASA.gov. https://www.nasa.gov/image-article/nasa-spacex-test-starship-lunar-lander-docking-system/

   NASA. (2024, November 20). "NASA, SpaceX Illustrate Key Moments of Artemis Lunar Lander Mission." NASA.gov. https://www.nasa.gov/humans-in-space/nasa-spacex-illustrate-key-moments-of-artemis-lunar-lander-mission/

   NASA. (2024, December 13). "NASA Outlines Latest Moon to Mars Plans in 2024 Architecture Update." NASA.gov. https://www.nasa.gov/news-release/nasa-outlines-latest-moon-to-mars-plans-in-2024-architecture-update/

   NASA. (2025, August 20). "Moon to Mars Architecture - White Papers." NASA.gov. https://www.nasa.gov/moontomarsarchitecture-whitepapers/

   NASA. (2023, June 21). "NASA's Lunar Surface Innovation Initiative." NASA.gov. https://www.nasa.gov/space-technology-mission-directorate/lunar-surface-innovation-initiative/

2. Government Reports and Congressional Documents

   U.S. Government Accountability Office. (2023, November). "NASA: Assessments of Major Projects." Report to Congress on Artemis program challenges.

   National Aeronautics and Space Administration. (2024). "Moon to Mars Architecture Executive Overview." NP-2024-12-XXXX-HQ. 28 pages.

   National Aeronautics and Space Administration. (2024). "Architecture Definition Document." ESDMD-001 (Revision B). 465 pages.

3. Recent News Coverage - Contract Reopening

   Tribou, R. (2025, October 21). "Blue Origin could benefit from SpaceX delay as NASA reopens moon lander contract." Orlando Sentinel. https://www.orlandosentinel.com/2025/10/21/blue-origin-could-benefit-from-spacex-delay-as-nasa-reopens-moon-lander-contract/

   CNBC. (2025, October 20). "NASA's Duffy: Musk's SpaceX is behind on Artemis moon landing." CNBC.com. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/20/nasa-duffy-spacex-artemis-moon-landing.html

   ClickOrlando. (2025, October 20). "NASA reopening contract for Artemis moon landing vehicle as SpaceX Starship delays persist." ClickOrlando.com. https://www.clickorlando.com/news/space-news/2025/10/20/nasa-reopening-contract-for-artemis-moon-landing-vehicle-as-spacex-starship-delays-persist/

   NASASpaceFlight.com. (2025, October 21). "NASA Opens Competition for Artemis III Lunar Lander." NASASpaceFlight.com. https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2025/10/nasa-competition-artemis-iii-lunar-lander/

   Euronews. (2025, October 21). "US to reopen Artemis III Moon mission contract after SpaceX delays, says NASA's Sean Duffy." Euronews.com. https://www.euronews.com/next/2025/10/21/us-to-reopen-artemis-iii-moon-mission-contract-after-spacex-delays-says-nasas-sean-duffy

   AmericaSpace. (2025, October 21). "NASA Boss Resets Moon Lander Program." AmericaSpace.com. https://www.americaspace.com/2025/10/21/nasa-boss-resets-moon-lander-program/

4. Technical Analysis and Industry Coverage

   AmericaSpace. (2024, April 20). "Starship Faces Performance Shortfall for Lunar Missions." AmericaSpace.com. https://www.americaspace.com/2024/04/20/starship-faces-performance-shortfall-for-lunar-missions/

   AmericaSpace. (2023, December 1). "SpaceX's New Design for Lunar Starship Unveiled." AmericaSpace.com. https://www.americaspace.com/2023/12/01/spacexs-new-design-for-lunar-starship-unveiled/

   SpacePolicyOnline.com. (2023, November 18). "At Least 15 Starship Launches Needed to Execute Artemis III Lunar Landing." SpacePolicyOnline.com. https://spacepolicyonline.com/news/at-least-15-starship-launches-to-execute-artemis-iii-lunar-landing/

   SpacePolicyOnline.com. (2025, October 14). "Another Successful Starship Test Flight as SpaceX Readies a New Version." SpacePolicyOnline.com. https://spacepolicyonline.com/news/another-successful-starship-test-flight-as-spacex-readies-a-new-version/

   Spaceflight Now. (2025, August 27). "SpaceX successfully launches Super Heavy-Starship on critical test flight." SpaceflightNow.com. https://spaceflightnow.com/2025/08/27/spacex-successfully-launches-super-heavy-starship-on-critical-test-flight/

5. Space News Outlets

   Foust, J. (2023, February 22). "Lockheed Martin offers architecture for 2024 human lunar landing." SpaceNews. https://spacenews.com/lockheed-martin-offers-architecture-for-2024-human-lunar-landing/

   Space.com. (2024, November 21). "SpaceX and NASA show off how Starship will help astronauts land on the moon (images)." Space.com. https://www.space.com/space-exploration/artemis/spacex-and-nasa-show-off-how-starship-will-help-astronauts-land-on-the-moon-images

   Space.com. (2022, November 16). "NASA taps SpaceX for 2nd astronaut moon landing with Starship." Space.com. https://www.space.com/nasa-spacex-starship-second-astronaut-moon-landing

   Gizmodo. (2024, November 22). "New Images Show How NASA and SpaceX Plan to Land Astronauts on the Moon in 2026." Gizmodo.com. https://gizmodo.com/new-images-show-how-nasa-and-spacex-plan-to-land-astronauts-on-the-moon-in-2026-2000527998

6. General Media Coverage

   NPR. (2025, October 13). "SpaceX launches 11th test flight of its mega Starship rocket with another win." NPR.org. https://www.npr.org/2025/10/13/nx-s1-5573520/space-x-eleventh-test-flight-starship

   CNN. (2025, October 14). "SpaceX's Starship megarocket finds redemption after explosive failures." CNN.com. https://www.cnn.com/2025/10/14/science/takeaways-spacex-launch-flight-11

   Scientific American. (2025, October 14). "SpaceX's Starship Succeeds in Final Test Flight of 2025." ScientificAmerican.com. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/spacexs-starship-succeeds-in-final-test-flight-of-2025/

   TechGenyz. (2025, June 18). "Starship Test Flight 2025: Amazing Progress Toward Mars." TechGenyz.com. https://techgenyz.com/starship-test-flight-2025-progress-toward-mars/

   MIT Technology Review. (2021, May 3). "NASA selects SpaceX's Starship as the lander to take astronauts to the moon." TechnologyReview.com. https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/04/16/1023038/nasa-spacex-starship-lunar-lander-artemis/

7. Technical and Historical Context

   Adler, D. (2023, May 18). "The many methods to get to the Moon." Astronomy.com. https://www.astronomy.com/space-exploration/the-many-methods-to-get-to-the-moon/

   Wikipedia contributors. (2025, October). "Starship HLS." Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starship_HLS

   Wikipedia contributors. (2025, October). "Artemis III." Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_III

   Wikipedia contributors. (2025, October). "Artemis program." Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program

   Wikipedia contributors. (2025, October). "Human Landing System." Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_Landing_System

   Wikipedia contributors. (2025, August). "Direct ascent." Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Direct_ascent

   Wikipedia contributors. (2025, October). "List of Starship launches." Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Starship_launches

8. Industry Partnership Announcements

   Lunar Outpost. (2024, November 21). "Lunar Outpost Signs with SpaceX for Starship Moon Mission." LunarOutpost.com. https://www.lunaroutpost.com/post/lunar-outpost-signs-with-spacex-for-starship-moon-mission

9. Reference Resources

   Next Spaceflight. "Uncrewed Lunar Demo | Starship HLS." NextSpaceflight.com. https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/details/7140/

   Starship SpaceX Wiki. (2024, October). "Human Landing System (HLS)." Starship-SpaceX.fandom.com. https://starship-spacex.fandom.com/wiki/Human_Landing_System_(HLS)

10. Industry Analysis and Commentary

Future Space. (2025). "SpaceX Direct Lunar Ascent Analysis." Video transcript discussing potential direct ascent approaches and Flight 12 speculation. [Note: This source represents industry speculation and analysis rather than confirmed SpaceX or NASA plans]

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Note: This article synthesizes information from official NASA releases, government reports, industry analysis, and news coverage through October 28, 2025. Technical specifications and schedule dates reflect publicly available information and are subject to change as the Artemis program evolves.