Life is not a problem to be solved ...

Life is not a problem to be solved ... - YouTube

TL;DR: From medieval mysticism to modern climate models, humanity's deepest struggles involve navigating certainty and mystery. Bergman's knight seeking God's face, the 14th-century mystic embracing divine darkness, and today's climate scientists modeling an uncertain future all confront the same epistemological crisis: How do we act decisively when truth remains elusive? The answer isn't more certainty—it's intellectual humility paired with moral courage.

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Playing Chess With Uncertainty: What a Medieval Film, Mystical Theology, and Climate Science Reveal About Knowledge and Action

The knight Antonius Block sits across from Death on a windswept beach, moving chess pieces to buy time he cannot keep. He demands answers from a silent God. He receives none. Yet he must still choose how to live—and die.

Seven centuries earlier, an anonymous English mystic wrote that God dwells in "a cloud of unknowing," accessible not through intellect but through love. Knowledge fails; surrender succeeds.

Today, climate scientists build computational models projecting futures they cannot verify, quantifying uncertainties that dwarf the signals they seek. The models say the planet warms. The error bars say we cannot measure precisely how much. Yet policy demands certainty science cannot provide.

These three moments—Bergman's 1957 masterpiece, 14th-century contemplative prayer, and 21st-century climate modeling—form an unexpected trinity exploring humanity's eternal struggle: how to navigate the space between what we know and what we must decide.

The Knight's Dilemma: Certainty Promised, Silence Delivered

Ingmar Bergman's "The Seventh Seal" opens with a crisis of certainty. Block returns from the Crusades, promised salvation through violence for God. He finds plague-ravaged Sweden and cosmic silence. The institutional Church offers dogma: Trinity incomprehensible yet mandatory, Original Sin transmitted through mistranslation, salvation purchased through correct belief.

Block rejects this certainty-without-evidence. His famous cry echoes through the centuries: "I want God to stretch out his hand, uncover his face, and speak to me."

God doesn't answer. Death does.

The film's genius lies in recognizing that Block's doubt is more spiritually serious than the Church's confident corruption. The flagellants whipping themselves, the priests burning witches, the theologian turned rapist—all possess certainty. Block possesses questions.

In 1995, the Vatican placed this film on its list of important works, implicitly acknowledging what it cannot explicitly admit: that institutional certainty about divine mysteries may matter less than honest wrestling with unknowing.

The Cloud: Mysticism as Epistemological Humility

"By love may He be gotten and holden, but never through thought."

The 14th-century author of "The Cloud of Unknowing" understood what both medieval bishops and modern scientists often forget: some truths cannot be grasped through analysis. The mystic teaches "apophatic" spirituality—approaching God through un-knowing, through what Gregory of Nyssa called "luminous darkness."

This wasn't anti-intellectual obscurantism. It was sophisticated epistemology. The tradition runs through Gregory of Nyssa, Pseudo-Dionysius, Maximus the Confessor, Meister Eckhart, and beyond—representing "apophatic terms of negation, common to all true mystical traditions...symbols pointing to God who remains completely 'other'".

Thomas Aquinas himself affirmed in the Summa Theologica: "We cannot know what God is, but rather what He is not."

Yet the institutional Church, needing administrative certainty, formulated incomprehensible doctrines and demanded belief. As Pascal later wrote of Original Sin: "Nothing jolts us more rudely than this doctrine, and yet, but for this mystery, the most incomprehensible of all, we remain incomprehensible to ourselves".

The Cloud offered an alternative: embrace mystery, approach through love, act without comprehensive knowledge. Contemplation over comprehension. Presence over proof.

This wisdom was marginalized. Institutional religion preferred enforceable dogma to experiential unknowing.

Climate Models: The New Mysterium Tremendum

Today's climate scientists face Block's dilemma in computational form. The physics is clear: CO2 traps heat. The trend is observable: the planet warms. But the devil—and the policy—is in the details.

The estimated extra energy from excess CO2 is 0.036 Wm⁻². Cloud modeling uncertainty alone? ±4.0 Wm⁻²—"110 times as large." Total combined model errors: "about 150 Wm⁻², which is over 4,000 times as large as the estimated annual extra energy from higher CO2 concentrations".

Read that again. The uncertainty is four thousand times larger than the signal being measured.

This is like Augustine building two millennia of theology on a Latin mistranslation while acknowledging he couldn't read the Greek original. His "primary formulation of original sin was based on...a mistranslation of Romans 5:12" by Ambrosiaster. The foundation was shaky. The edifice became mandatory.

Climate science faces an analogous temptation: build policy on models with enormous uncertainty, then declare the science "settled" to justify action.

The Falsifiability Crisis

Karl Popper argued that "the hallmark of a genuinely scientific proposition is not that it can be verified...but that the proposition can in principle be disproved". Medieval theology failed this test spectacularly. The Trinity was declared incomprehensible—unfalsifiable by definition.

Climate models struggle similarly. "What makes climate models fundamentally different is that they are presented as being unfalsifiable. Even when they deviate from actual observations, they are not superseded by a better competing model".

When models run too hot, parameters are "tuned." When predictions miss, timescales are extended. "It seems that whatever happens in the climate system is consistent with climate model predictions. Warmer, colder, less ice, more ice, droughts, floods"—like theological claims that work in "mysterious ways."

Even defenders acknowledge the problem: "You run very close to suggesting that climate predictions simply cannot be verified except on a multi-decadal time scale, which...moves modeling outside the realm of falsifiability".

The Council of Nicaea in 325 CE formulated Trinity doctrine through political compromise under Emperor Constantine's pressure, then declared it divinely revealed. It "represented a minority viewpoint" that was "unacceptable to many". Dissent was crushed. Doctrine became mandatory.

Today: model consensus through peer review, IPCC authority, career consequences for skepticism. The structure is disturbingly familiar.

The Tuning Problem: Circular Revelation

Climate models require extensive "parameter adjustment, or tuning...Modelers continue tuning climate models until they match a known 20th century temperature or precipitation record".

The circle closes:

1. Use historical data to tune models
2. Models match historical data (because tuned to it)
3. Declare models validated
4. Use models to predict future
5. When predictions diverge, retune

Philosophers call this "double-counting—using the same evidence both to calibrate or tune climate models and also to confirm or verify that the models are adequate".

Medieval theology operated identically: formulate doctrine to match political requirements, cite that match as proof of divine origin, declare questioning heretical.

Both mistake circular reasoning for validation.

The Discourse of Heresy

Medieval Church to doubters: "Heretic!" Modern climate discourse to skeptics: "Denier!"

Both terms don't invite inquiry—they shut it down. Both conflate legitimate questions about certainty with moral failure. Both serve institutional power that benefits from declaring debates settled.

One church father lamented about Trinity doctrine: "They have taken my God away from me...and I know not whom to adore or to address". The incomprehensible declared mandatory.

Today's parallel: "In the climate change field...deep uncertainty abounds," yet policy demands presented with absolute confidence. The uncertain declared settled.

What Block Teaches: Action Despite Mystery

Yet here's where Bergman's film transcends the parallel. Block never receives his answer. God remains silent. Death is inexorable. The mystery stays mysterious.

Block acts anyway.

His final meaningful deed isn't theological clarity—it's moral choice. He sacrifices his chess game, his borrowed time, to save Jof's family. The simple actors with their infant son represent life continuing beyond individual understanding.

Block becomes Christ-like not by comprehending doctrine but by choosing love over certainty, sacrifice over answers. His hands moving chess pieces to protect the innocent speak louder than any catechism.

The film's message isn't that mystery doesn't matter. It's that mystery doesn't paralyze.

The Cloud's Wisdom: Love Works Where Knowledge Fails

The author of "The Cloud of Unknowing" would recognize Block's dilemma. When thought fails, when comprehension proves impossible, what remains?

"Lift up your heart to God with a gentle stirring of love...You won't know what this is. You'll only know that in your will you feel a simple reaching out to God."

This isn't anti-intellectualism. It's epistemological maturity. It acknowledges limits while refusing paralysis. It acts from values when evidence proves insufficient.

Modern theologians worry that "contemporary fascination with the apophatic" might stem "more from ethico-political concerns than by the doctrine of God," or create "a knowledge vacuum...ready to be filled by our human 'stuff'".

Valid concern. Unknowing can become another form of intellectual pride. Mystery can excuse lazy thinking.

But the alternative—premature certainty, institutional dogma, enforced consensus—has proven worse.

Climate Science's Choice: Which Path?

Climate science stands at a crossroads analogous to medieval theology's.

Path One: The Nicene model

• Declare consensus mandatory
• Treat models as revelation
• Punish questioning as heresy
• Demand certainty about uncertainty
• Serve institutional power

Path Two: The Cloud model

• Acknowledge profound uncertainty
• Treat models as imperfect tools
• Welcome rigorous skepticism
• Act from values despite incomplete knowledge
• Serve truth over authority

"Science cannot provide absolute, immutable proof. Instead, it offers a powerful and reliable method for approximating truth through rigorous observation, experimentation, and analysis".

This is science's advantage over medieval theology—its capacity for self-correction. But that capacity only works if uncertainty is acknowledged, not suppressed.

The Honest Position: Block's Realism

The evidence for anthropogenic climate change is strong:

• CO2's greenhouse properties: laboratory physics
• Rising global temperatures: empirical measurement
• Arctic ice loss, sea level rise: observable trends
• Model projections: concerning though uncertain

This warrants serious action. But not through manufactured certainty.

The honest scientific statement sounds like this: "Human activities are very likely warming the planet significantly. Models project serious consequences but with enormous uncertainty. We should act to mitigate risks while continuing to refine understanding and remain open to evidence that challenges current models."

This is epistemological maturity. It's also political suicide.

So instead we get: "97% consensus." "Settled science." "Deniers."

Medieval certainty in modern dress.

The Strawberries and Milk

The most profound scene in "The Seventh Seal" isn't theological debate. It's Block sharing wild strawberries and milk with Jof's family. Simple presence. Human connection. Beauty without comprehension.

Jof sees visions—the Virgin Mary with infant Jesus. But he lives through simple acts: performing for crowds, loving his wife, protecting his child. His transcendence isn't doctrinal. It's lived.

This is the Cloud's teaching incarnate. This is how to act when God won't answer, when certainty proves impossible, when the future remains unknown.

Block's sacrifice for this family isn't based on comprehensive knowledge of salvation mechanics. It's based on love for specific people in front of him.

The Climate Parallel: Acting Under Uncertainty

Climate policy faces the same structure. We cannot know with precision what warming awaits, which feedback loops will dominate, how societies will adapt. The models that project catastrophe carry errors thousands of times larger than the signals they measure.

Yet we must still choose: How much carbon? Which technologies? What sacrifices?

The medieval model says: "Declare certainty. Enforce consensus. Punish doubt."

The mystic model says: "Acknowledge mystery. Act from values. Stay open to revision."

Science at its best follows the mystic path. It says: "Here's what we know. Here's what we don't. Here are the risks. Here's our best current understanding—subject to change."

Institutions prefer the medieval path. It's administratively cleaner. Politically stronger. Easier to defend.

But it's epistemologically dishonest.

The Dance of Death

Bergman's film ends with the famous Dance of Death—a line of figures silhouetted against the sky, led by Death himself. The corrupt priest, the cynical squire, the knight who questioned. All dance together into darkness.

Only Jof's family escapes, hidden in their wagon while Block's sacrifice distracted Death. They'll continue the story. Tell tales. Love and create. The mystery continues; life persists.

The film doesn't resolve its questions. God never speaks. Death wins the chess game. Uncertainty remains.

But meaning emerges anyway—not through comprehension but through choice.

The Modern Application

We face planetary risks we cannot precisely quantify. Climate models project futures with error bars that dwarf their signals. The science is strong but not "settled." The uncertainties are genuine, not manufactured by fossil fuel interests.

How do we act?

Not by declaring false certainty. Not by punishing questions. Not by treating models as revelation or consensus as dogma.

But by acknowledging:

• The risks are real though imprecisely known
• The evidence warrants action despite uncertainty
• The models are tools, not oracles
• Skepticism strengthens rather than weakens inquiry
• Values guide when knowledge proves insufficient

This is Block's path. The mystic's way. Science at its best.

It's harder than certainty. It demands intellectual humility and moral courage simultaneously. It refuses the comfort of comprehensive answers while accepting the responsibility to act.

The Cloud Descends

Pope Francis acknowledged in 2022: "Even the greatest believer goes through the tunnel of doubt. And this is not a bad thing; on the contrary, sometimes it is essential for spiritual growth: it helps us understand that God is always greater than we imagine Him to be".

This is the wisdom the institutional Church spent centuries suppressing. Mystery isn't failure. Uncertainty isn't weakness. Doubt isn't heresy.

They're the honest acknowledgment of our epistemological condition.

Climate science needs this wisdom. Not to excuse inaction. Not to deny evidence. But to escape the medieval trap of declaring comprehension where complexity reigns.

Playing Chess with the Future

Block never wins his game with Death. But he uses his borrowed time well—not to find certainty but to protect life.

Climate science plays chess with an uncertain future. The models are imperfect. The error bars are enormous. The signals are real but imprecise.

We can respond like medieval bishops—declaring mysteries comprehensible, enforcing consensus, punishing questions.

Or like mystical seekers—acknowledging unknowing, acting from love, staying open to truth.

Or like Bergman's knight—using our limited time and incomplete knowledge to protect what matters, even without comprehensive answers.

The Verdict

The Seventh Seal was right to leave God silent and Death victorious. Life's deepest questions don't resolve. Mystery persists. Certainty eludes.

The Cloud of Unknowing was right to teach that love works where knowledge fails. Some truths can't be grasped, only lived.

Climate science would be right to acknowledge that models are tools, not revelations. That uncertainty is real, not manufactured. That "settled science" is an oxymoron. That skepticism serves truth.

We are all, in the end, lost in clouds of unknowing—whether divine darkness or computational uncertainty. The question isn't whether we can dispel the clouds through force of will or institutional decree.

The question is whether we can act with integrity despite them.

Block moves his chess pieces. The mystic reaches toward darkness. The scientist builds imperfect models.

All three act without certainty—and therein lies their wisdom.

The strawberries taste sweet regardless. The family escapes into the future. The planet continues warming, imprecisely measured.

We dance with Death, knowing we cannot win. We dwell in divine darkness, knowing we cannot see. We model the future, knowing we cannot predict precisely.

And still, we must choose how to live.

That's not medieval. That's human.

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